March 2, 2009

1 Obama Stimulus > 1 Osama 9/11


UPDATED to reflect the DJIA as of March 6:

It's official: Once the first draft of it was approved by the House, Obama's stimulus plan (combined with his subsequent economic rhetoric) has caused MORE DAMAGE to the stock market and to the American economy -- as represented by the stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- than Osama Bin Laden's attack of Sept. 11, 2001.

Check the numbers and do the math yourself if you don't believe me:

DJIA close Sept. 10, 2001: 9,605.51
DJIA lowest point after Osama Bin Laden's Sept. 11 attack: 7,926.93 on Sept. 21, 2001
Total decline from Sept. 10 / the impact of Bin Laden's attacks: -1,678.07 (-17.5% rounded)

DJIA close Jan. 28, 2009*: 8,375.05
DJIA lowest point since then: 6,542.99 March 6
Total decline from Jan. 28 / the impact of Obama's plan: -1,832.26 (-21.9% rounded)
*This is the date of the first House vote to approve the stimulus plan, which officially spelled out what was likely to be in the final bill

You can debate whether the DJIA accurately reflects the state of the American economy. I would respond that the stocks that make up the DJIA also make up the portfolios of many retirement and pension plans across the nation, and represent the "biggest guns" in our economy. Plus, when evening news shows talk about the economy each night, two numbers are always mentioned -- and the first one is always the Dow.

You can also debate the whether the comparison between Osama and Obama is fair or not, or whether the DJIA's drop was caused by factors other than Obama's stimulus. In my view, I think a $787 billion stimulus bill qualifies as a significant factor when it comes to reviving and boosting confidence in our economy (and if that wasn't the point of the bill, why pass it in the first place?) -- especially in the time frame I cited above. 

Nevertheless, those debates do not change the bottom-line results to investors in the stock market:

Whether you strike fear in the American people by crashing planes or talking down the economy, or whether you create uncertainty through a senseless act of terror or legislation -- the actual economic damage as illustrated by the benchmark of our economy's health (the DJIA) is tangible, measurable and inescapable

In addition, it is becoming painfully obvious that Obama's stimulus bill and subsequent rhetoric have done NOTHING to stimulate confidence in the U.S. economy; if the DJIA is any indication, Obama has made matters worse.

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